๐Ÿ† WC 2026 Forecaster
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ ยท 11 Jun โ€“ 19 Jul 2026 ยท 48 teams ยท 12 groups

Who lifts the trophy in 2026?

Bayesian Monte Carlo simulator running 50,000 tournament rollouts on a Dixon-Coles model fitted to a century of international results plus EA FC 25 squad strength.

๐Ÿฅ‡#1
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
Spain
18.2%
Reaches Final 28% ยท Reaches SF 39%
๐Ÿฅˆ#2
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
Argentina
15.1%
Reaches Final 26% ยท Reaches SF 37%
๐Ÿฅ‰#3
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
France
12.9%
Reaches Final 21% ยท Reaches SF 32%
Top 12 favoritescover 87.2% of all simulated outcomes
  • 1
    ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
    Spain18.17%
  • 2
    ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
    Argentina15.13%
  • 3
    ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
    France12.90%
  • 4
    ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
    Brazil9.68%
  • 5
    ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
    England7.35%
  • 6
    ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น
    Portugal6.29%
  • 7
    ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
    Germany4.56%
  • 8
    ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
    Netherlands4.24%
  • 9
    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด
    Colombia3.31%
  • 10
    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ
    Uruguay1.92%
  • 11
    ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ
    Ecuador1.86%
  • 12
    ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท
    Croatia1.83%
Champion probability by confederation
๐Ÿ†
  • UEFA61.6%
  • CONMEBOL32.4%
  • CAF3.0%
  • AFC1.8%
  • CONCACAF1.2%
  • OFC0.0%
Stage advance probabilities (top 8 favorites)
TeamR32R16QFSFFinalChampion
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain99.5%76.1%59.7%38.7%27.8%18.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina98.2%78.8%55.5%37.2%25.6%15.1%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFrance98.2%77.9%52.5%32.3%21.2%12.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทBrazil99.8%79.8%58.6%37.0%18.2%9.7%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland97.4%65.6%42.8%23.0%14.0%7.3%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡นPortugal95.3%72.2%40.0%22.3%12.5%6.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermany97.3%67.4%41.2%22.7%10.0%4.6%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlands93.1%62.3%33.2%18.2%9.2%4.2%
Calibration

Back-tested against 2018 + 2022 World Cups: Brier 0.58, accuracy 55โ€“58% โ€” in line with FiveThirtyEight SPI and bookmaker-grade systems. Fitted on 4,226 international matches since 1990 with time-decay (2.5-yr half-life) and tournament-importance weighting.