🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 · 11 Jun to 19 Jul 2026 · 48 teams · 12 groups

Who lifts the trophy in 2026?

Bayesian Monte Carlo simulator running 50,000 tournament rollouts on a Dixon-Coles model fitted to a century of international results plus EA FC 25 squad strength.

What does “Spain 16.1%” actually mean?

The numbers below are chances, not predictions. The model plays the World Cup 50,000 times. Spain wins about 8,030of those — that’s where 16.1% comes from. The other ~41,970 times, somebody else lifts the trophy.

Why no team is above ~16%. Winning the World Cup means winning seven matches in a row. Even the best team doesn’t pull that off most of the time. A 48-team tournament is wide open by design — in every modern World Cup the favorite has sat between 15% and 25%.

How to read it. Spain at 16.1%is the model’s top pick — but it’s also saying it’s about 5.2× more likely that someone else wins. The interesting part is the order and the gaps: Spain ≈ Brazil ≈ Argentina are basically tied at the top, then a step down to England and France.

What’s not in the model. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or the final squads (those land in late May). It uses a century of match results, current Elo ratings, and player ratings from EA FC 25.

🇧🇷

Brazil

14.7%

F 25% · SF 46%

🇪🇸

Spain

16.1%

F 25% · SF 38%

🇦🇷

Argentina

13.5%

F 23% · SF 35%

Top 12 favoritescover 90.0% of all simulated outcomes

1
🇪🇸
Spain16.06%
2
🇧🇷
Brazil14.73%
3
🇦🇷
Argentina13.53%
4
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
England10.59%
5
🇫🇷
France8.07%
6
🇵🇹
Portugal5.62%
7
🇩🇪
Germany5.36%
8
🇳🇱
Netherlands4.43%
9
🇨🇴
Colombia4.06%
10
🇲🇦
Morocco3.41%
11
🇧🇪
Belgium2.91%
12
🇭🇷
Croatia1.26%

Upcoming matches

View all

🇦🇷ArgentinaArgentina🇦🇷
–
🇦🇹Austria
Group J
🇫🇷FranceFrance🇫🇷
–
🇮🇶Iraq
Group I
🇳🇴NorwayNorway🇳🇴
–
🇸🇳Senegal
Group I
🇯🇴JordanJordan🇯🇴
–
🇩🇿Algeria
Group J
🇵🇹PortugalPortugal🇵🇹
–
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
Group K
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandEngland🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
–
🇬🇭Ghana
Group L

Full match schedule

Champion probability by confederation

UEFA58.0%
CONMEBOL34.1%
CAF5.3%
AFC1.9%
CONCACAF0.8%
OFC0.0%
Outer ring = per-team probability

Stage advance probabilities (top 8 favorites)

Team	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	100.0%	77.6%	59.3%	38.5%	25.4%	16.1%
🇧🇷Brazil	100.0%	85.6%	69.2%	45.7%	25.5%	14.7%
🇦🇷Argentina	99.9%	78.1%	53.8%	35.0%	23.5%	13.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	99.9%	74.5%	57.6%	32.0%	20.0%	10.6%
🇫🇷France	99.8%	73.1%	44.8%	25.9%	14.8%	8.1%
🇵🇹Portugal	89.1%	63.6%	37.3%	21.8%	11.6%	5.6%
🇩🇪Germany	100.0%	78.1%	48.1%	25.1%	11.2%	5.4%
🇳🇱Netherlands	100.0%	69.1%	35.1%	18.5%	9.5%	4.4%

Calibration

Back-tested against 2018 + 2022 World Cups: Brier 0.58, accuracy 55 to 58%, in line with FiveThirtyEight SPI and bookmaker-grade systems. Fitted on ~31k international matches since 1990 with time-decay (4-yr half-life, cross-validated) and tournament-importance weighting. Squad-strength prior validated against weekly-refreshed Transfermarkt market values (Spearman 0.96, max champion-% shift 0.65pp).