Who lifts the trophy in 2026?

The numbers below are chances, not predictions. The model plays the World Cup 50,000 times. Spain wins about 7,598of those — that’s where 15.2% comes from. The other ~42,402 times, somebody else lifts the trophy.

Why no team is above ~16%. Winning the World Cup means winning seven matches in a row. Even the best team doesn’t pull that off most of the time. A 48-team tournament is wide open by design — in every modern World Cup the favorite has sat between 15% and 25%.

How to read it. Spain at 15.2%is the model’s top pick — but it’s also saying it’s about 5.6× more likely that someone else wins. The interesting part is the order and the gaps: Spain ≈ Brazil ≈ Argentina are basically tied at the top, then a step down to England and France.

What’s not in the model. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or the final squads (those land in late May). It uses a century of match results, current Elo ratings, and player ratings from EA FC 25.