WC 2026 Forecaster

Knockout bracket

Probability each team reaches each knockout stage, derived from 50,000 simulated tournaments. The modal path below picks the most likely team in each starting slot and walks the bracket using pairwise win probabilities. One of many possible timelines.

🛣️ Most-likely bracket path
🏆 Modal Champion
🇦🇷
Argentina
wins final 67% over Spain
Round of 32top 32
  • 🇪🇸Spain98.8%
  • 🇧🇷Brazil98.7%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina98.0%
  • 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England96.4%
  • 🇩🇪Germany94.9%
  • 🇫🇷France94.3%
  • 🇨🇭Switzerland93.7%
  • 🇲🇦Morocco93.0%
  • 🇺🇾Uruguay91.1%
  • 🇵🇹Portugal91.1%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia90.7%
  • 🇧🇪Belgium90.0%
  • 🇳🇱Netherlands89.3%
  • 🇨🇦Canada88.9%
  • 🇪🇨Ecuador88.4%
  • 🇯🇵Japan88.0%
  • 🇲🇽Mexico87.4%
  • 🇭🇷Croatia87.3%
  • 🇰🇷South Korea82.3%
  • 🇸🇳Senegal76.3%
  • 🇳🇴Norway76.2%
  • 🇮🇷Iran75.0%
  • 🇦🇺Australia74.8%
  • 🇨🇮Ivory Coast70.9%
  • 🇦🇹Austria67.7%
  • 🇺🇸United States67.7%
  • 🇨🇿Czech Republic67.6%
  • 🇹🇷Turkey66.4%
  • 🇵🇾Paraguay66.0%
  • 🇩🇿Algeria64.5%
  • 🇪🇬Egypt57.5%
  • 🇳🇿New Zealand48.5%
Round of 16top 16
  • 🇧🇷Brazil81.6%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina78.1%
  • 🇪🇸Spain75.1%
  • 🇫🇷France68.3%
  • 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England64.9%
  • 🇩🇪Germany64.7%
  • 🇵🇹Portugal64.7%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia64.2%
  • 🇲🇦Morocco62.6%
  • 🇳🇱Netherlands57.3%
  • 🇯🇵Japan55.4%
  • 🇺🇾Uruguay54.8%
  • 🇪🇨Ecuador52.3%
  • 🇧🇪Belgium51.9%
  • 🇲🇽Mexico45.1%
  • 🇨🇭Switzerland40.8%
Quarter-Finalstop 8
  • 🇧🇷Brazil62.2%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina56.1%
  • 🇪🇸Spain55.8%
  • 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England41.3%
  • 🇫🇷France41.3%
  • 🇩🇪Germany37.2%
  • 🇨🇴Colombia37.1%
  • 🇵🇹Portugal36.9%
Semi-Finalstop 4
  • 🇧🇷Brazil42.0%
  • 🇦🇷Argentina38.3%
  • 🇪🇸Spain35.9%
  • 🇫🇷France23.6%
Finaltop 2
  • 🇦🇷Argentina26.9%
  • 🇧🇷Brazil24.0%
Championtop 1
  • 🇦🇷Argentina16.7%