Knockout bracket
Probability each team reaches each knockout stage, derived from 50,000 simulated tournaments. The modal path below picks the most likely team in each starting slot and walks the bracket using pairwise win probabilities. One of many possible timelines.
Most-likely bracket path
R32
R16
QF
SF
Final
SF
QF
R16
R32
Champion
đŞđ¸
Spain
wins it all 16.1%
Modal Champion
đŞđ¸
Spain
wins it all 16.1%
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-Finals
Round of 32top 32
- đ§đˇBrazil100.0%
- đ¨đŚCanada100.0%
- đŞđŹEgypt100.0%
- đŠđŞGermany100.0%
- đŻđľJapan100.0%
- đ˛đ˝Mexico100.0%
- đ˛đŚMorocco100.0%
- đłđąNetherlands100.0%
- đŞđ¸Spain100.0%
- đ¨đSwitzerland100.0%
- đşđ¸United States100.0%
- đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland99.9%
- đŚđˇArgentina99.9%
- đŤđˇFrance99.8%
- đ¨đ´Colombia98.8%
- đłđ´Norway98.0%
- đ¨đŽIvory Coast96.4%
- đŚđšAustria95.8%
- đ¸đŞSweden94.4%
- đ§đŞBelgium93.3%
- đŚđşAustralia89.5%
- đ°đˇSouth Korea89.4%
- đľđšPortugal89.1%
- đđˇCroatia86.0%
- đŹđGhana75.5%
- đľđžParaguay75.4%
- đŽđˇIran70.4%
- đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland69.4%
- đ¸đłSenegal69.0%
- đ¨đťCape Verde64.4%
- đŠđżAlgeria57.9%
- đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina48.3%
Round of 16top 16
- đ§đˇBrazil85.6%
- đŚđˇArgentina78.1%
- đŠđŞGermany78.1%
- đŞđ¸Spain77.6%
- đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland74.5%
- đŤđˇFrance73.1%
- đłđąNetherlands69.1%
- đ˛đŚMorocco69.1%
- đ¨đ´Colombia67.6%
- đľđšPortugal63.6%
- đ˛đ˝Mexico57.2%
- đ§đŞBelgium55.7%
- đşđ¸United States55.3%
- đłđ´Norway49.9%
- đŻđľJapan49.3%
- đ¨đŽIvory Coast46.3%
Quarter-Finalstop 8
- đ§đˇBrazil69.2%
- đŞđ¸Spain59.3%
- đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland57.6%
- đŚđˇArgentina53.8%
- đŠđŞGermany48.1%
- đŤđˇFrance44.8%
- đ˛đŚMorocco44.0%
- đľđšPortugal37.3%
Semi-Finalstop 4
- đ§đˇBrazil45.7%
- đŞđ¸Spain38.5%
- đŚđˇArgentina35.0%
- đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland32.0%
Finaltop 2
- đ§đˇBrazil25.5%
- đŞđ¸Spain25.4%
Championtop 1
- đŞđ¸Spain16.1%