WC2026

Matchup predictor

Pick any two teams and see win/draw/loss probability, expected score and most-likely scoreline, drawn from the Bayesian Dixon Coles posterior at a neutral venue.

🇦🇷ArgentinavsBrazil🇧🇷
34.5%
32.6%
32.9%
Argentina winsDrawBrazil wins
Expected score
0.98 − 0.94
Most likely scoreline
0-0
Favorite
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇦🇷Argentina tournament outlook
Champion
13.53%
Reach final
23.5%
🇧🇷Brazil tournament outlook
Champion
14.73%
Reach final
25.5%
Neutral venueHead-to-head probabilities (top bar) sampled from 5,000 posterior draws of the Dixon-Coles model. The tournament-outlook numbers are aggregated across the 50,000 simulated tournaments and account for each team's bracket path, so they can disagree with the head-to-head favorite.
Most likely upsetsElo gap ≥ 150

Pairs where the model gives the underdog the highest chance of beating the favorite, among matchups with a meaningful Elo gap. Underdog probabilities here marginalize over all of the model's posterior uncertainty.