WC 2026 Forecaster

Matchup predictor

Pick any two teams and see win/draw/loss probability, expected score and most-likely scoreline, drawn from the Bayesian Dixon Coles posterior at a neutral venue.

🇦🇷ArgentinavsBrazil🇧🇷
39.5%
32.1%
28.4%
Argentina winsDrawBrazil wins
Expected score
1.07 − 0.85
Most likely scoreline
0-0
Favorite
🇦🇷 Argentina
Neutral venueOutcomes sampled from 5,000 posterior draws of the fitted Dixon-Coles model. The "expected score" averages all goal samples; the "most likely scoreline" is the modal exact score.
⚡ Most likely upsetsElo gap ≥ 150

Pairs where the model gives the underdog the highest chance of beating the favorite, among matchups with a meaningful Elo gap. Underdog probabilities here marginalize over all of the model's posterior uncertainty.