WC2026

Group stage

Probability each team finishes in its group's top 2 (auto-advance), advances as one of 8 best third-placed teams, or is eliminated. Based on 50,000 simulated tournaments.

Group of Death — Group H

competitiveness 95 / 100

Most competitive group — entropy of advance-probability distribution closest to uniform.

🇪🇸Spain100%🇨🇻Cape Verde64%🇺🇾Uruguay51%🇸🇦Saudi Arabia36%
All groups ranked by competitiveness
  • Group H95.0
  • Group K92.7
  • Group D91.3
  • Group B91.2
  • Group A88.9
  • Group J87.8
  • Group L86.6
  • Group I85.0
  • Group G84.9
  • Group C80.0
  • Group F79.2
  • Group E78.8

GroupA

Very competitive
  • 1
    🇲🇽Mexico
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇰🇷South Korea
    89%
    advance
  • 3
    🇨🇿Czech Republic
    35%
    advance
  • 4
    🇿🇦South Africa
    23%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupB

Very competitive
  • 1
    🇨🇦Canada
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇨🇭Switzerland
    100%
    advance
  • 3
    🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
    48%
    advance
  • 4
    🇶🇦Qatar
    26%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupC

Competitive
  • 1
    🇲🇦Morocco
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇧🇷Brazil
    100%
    advance
  • 3
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
    69%
    advance
  • 4
    🇭🇹Haiti
    1%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupD

Very competitive
  • 1
    🇺🇸United States
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇦🇺Australia
    90%
    advance
  • 3
    🇵🇾Paraguay
    75%
    advance
  • 4
    🇹🇷Turkey
    19%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupE

Competitive
  • 1
    🇩🇪Germany
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇨🇮Ivory Coast
    96%
    advance
  • 3
    🇪🇨Ecuador
    25%
    advance
  • 4
    🇨🇼Curaçao
    9%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupF

Competitive
  • 1
    🇳🇱Netherlands
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇯🇵Japan
    100%
    advance
  • 3
    🇸🇪Sweden
    94%
    advance
  • 4
    🇹🇳Tunisia
    0%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupG

Competitive
  • 1
    🇪🇬Egypt
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇧🇪Belgium
    93%
    advance
  • 3
    🇮🇷Iran
    70%
    advance
  • 4
    🇳🇿New Zealand
    7%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupH

Very competitive
  • 1
    🇪🇸Spain
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇨🇻Cape Verde
    64%
    advance
  • 3
    🇺🇾Uruguay
    51%
    advance
  • 4
    🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
    36%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupI

Competitive
  • 1
    🇫🇷France
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇳🇴Norway
    98%
    advance
  • 3
    🇸🇳Senegal
    69%
    advance
  • 4
    🇮🇶Iraq
    7%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupJ

Competitive
  • 1
    🇦🇷Argentina
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇦🇹Austria
    96%
    advance
  • 3
    🇩🇿Algeria
    58%
    advance
  • 4
    🇯🇴Jordan
    13%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupK

Very competitive
  • 1
    🇨🇴Colombia
    99%
    advance
  • 2
    🇵🇹Portugal
    89%
    advance
  • 3
    🇨🇩DR Congo
    50%
    advance
  • 4
    🇺🇿Uzbekistan
    28%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv

GroupL

Competitive
  • 1
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England
    100%
    advance
  • 2
    🇭🇷Croatia
    86%
    advance
  • 3
    🇬🇭Ghana
    75%
    advance
  • 4
    🇵🇦Panama
    9%
    advance
1st2nd3rd-adv