WC 2026 Forecaster

Group stage

Probability each team finishes in its group's top 2 (auto-advance), advances as one of 8 best third-placed teams, or is eliminated. Based on 50,000 simulated tournaments.

๐Ÿ’€ Group of Deathcompetitiveness 100 / 100

Group D is the most competitive. Entropy of its advance probability distribution is closest to uniform.

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บAustralia 75%๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUnited States 68%๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทTurkey 66%๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พParaguay 66%
See all groups ranked by competitiveness
  • Group D99.9
  • Group G98.0
  • Group A96.4
  • Group F96.2
  • Group J95.6
  • Group K94.8
  • Group B94.8
  • Group L94.1
  • Group I93.4
  • Group E90.9
  • Group H90.1
  • Group C89.9
GroupAGroup of Death
1
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝMexico
87%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทSouth Korea
82%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟCzech Republic
68%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆSouth Africa
35%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupBVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญSwitzerland
94%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆCanada
89%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆBosnia and Herzegovina
46%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆQatar
38%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupCVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทBrazil
99%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆMorocco
93%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡นHaiti
39%
advance
4
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland
24%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupDGroup of Death
1
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บAustralia
75%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUnited States
68%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทTurkey
66%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พParaguay
66%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupEVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermany
95%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จEcuador
88%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎIvory Coast
71%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผCuraรงao
18%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupFGroup of Death
1
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlands
89%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตJapan
88%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชSweden
48%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณTunisia
43%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupGGroup of Death
1
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ชBelgium
90%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทIran
75%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌEgypt
58%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟNew Zealand
48%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupHVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain
99%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พUruguay
91%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆSaudi Arabia
41%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ปCape Verde
24%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupIVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFrance
94%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณSenegal
76%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ดNorway
76%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถIraq
24%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupJGroup of Death
1
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina
98%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡นAustria
68%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟAlgeria
65%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ดJordan
34%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupKVery competitive
1
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡นPortugal
91%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ดColombia
91%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟUzbekistan
46%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉDR Congo
38%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv
GroupLVery competitive
1
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland
96%
advance
2
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ทCroatia
87%
advance
3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆPanama
47%
advance
4
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญGhana
34%
advance
1st2nd3rd-adv