Alternate realities
Explore how the tournament shifts under different assumptions, then browse 100 sampled tournament rollouts from the model's actual posterior.
Scenario simulator
The model's baseline forecast. Current Elo plus squad strength dominate.
- 1🇪🇸Spain16.06%+0.0
- 2🇧🇷Brazil14.73%+0.0
- 3🇦🇷Argentina13.53%+0.0
- 4🏴England10.59%+0.0
- 5🇫🇷France8.07%+0.0
- 6🇵🇹Portugal5.62%+0.0
- 7🇩🇪Germany5.36%+0.0
- 8🇳🇱Netherlands4.43%+0.0
- 9🇨🇴Colombia4.06%+0.0
- 10🇲🇦Morocco3.41%+0.0
- 11🇧🇪Belgium2.91%+0.0
- 12🇭🇷Croatia1.26%+0.0
Champions across 100 sampled timelines
🇪🇸Spain ×21🇦🇷Argentina ×20🇧🇷Brazil ×10🇫🇷France ×9🏴England ×8🇲🇦Morocco ×5🇨🇴Colombia ×4🇩🇪Germany ×4🇵🇹Portugal ×4🇳🇴Norway ×3🇧🇪Belgium ×3🇳🇱Netherlands ×2🇨🇿Czech Republic ×2🇺🇾Uruguay ×1🇲🇽Mexico ×1🇪🇨Ecuador ×1🇭🇷Croatia ×1🇺🇸United States ×1
Timeline #1
🏴
England
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🏴 England
Timeline #2
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #3
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #4
🏴
England
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🏴 England
Timeline #5
🏴
England
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🏴 England
Timeline #6
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇦🇺 Australia
SF: 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #7
🇳🇴
Norway
beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands
SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #8
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇱 Netherlands
Timeline #9
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #10
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay
SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #11
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇧🇷 Brazil
Timeline #12
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #13
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇩🇪 Germany
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #14
🇳🇴
Norway
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #15
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #16
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇫🇷 France
Timeline #17
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #18
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇧🇷 Brazil
Timeline #19
🇺🇾
Uruguay
beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands
SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Timeline #20
🇧🇪
Belgium
beat 🇩🇪 Germany
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇧🇪 Belgium
Timeline #21
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇨🇭 Switzerland
SF: 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #22
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #23
🇩🇪
Germany
beat 🇨🇭 Switzerland
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Timeline #24
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #25
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇩🇿 Algeria
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇩🇿 Algeria
Timeline #26
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #27
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #28
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #29
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #30
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #31
🇳🇱
Netherlands
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #32
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #33
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇪🇸 Spain
Timeline #34
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #35
🏴
England
beat 🇦🇹 Austria
SF: 🇦🇹 Austria, 🏴 England
Timeline #36
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇸🇳 Senegal
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇳 Senegal
Timeline #37
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #38
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay
SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #39
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #40
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #41
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #42
🏴
England
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #43
🇳🇴
Norway
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇫🇷 France
Timeline #44
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #45
🇲🇽
Mexico
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #46
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #47
🇨🇿
Czech Republic
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
Timeline #48
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #49
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇰🇷 South Korea
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇰🇷 South Korea
Timeline #50
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador
SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇪🇸 Spain
Timeline #51
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇫🇷 France
Timeline #52
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #53
🇩🇪
Germany
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #54
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇧🇪 Belgium
Timeline #55
🇪🇨
Ecuador
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🏴 England
Timeline #56
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador
SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #57
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador
SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇧🇷 Brazil
Timeline #58
🏴
England
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🏴 England
Timeline #59
🇧🇪
Belgium
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇧🇪 Belgium
Timeline #60
🇭🇷
Croatia
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #61
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #62
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #63
🇩🇪
Germany
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🏴 England
Timeline #64
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🇩🇪 Germany
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #65
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #66
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #67
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #68
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #69
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇦🇹 Austria
SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇹 Austria
Timeline #70
🇧🇪
Belgium
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #71
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #72
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #73
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇩🇪 Germany
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #74
🇺🇸
United States
beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay
SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇺🇸 United States
Timeline #75
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇸🇳 Senegal
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇸🇳 Senegal
Timeline #76
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #77
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #78
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #79
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #80
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #81
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #82
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #83
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #84
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇲🇽 Mexico
SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇪🇸 Spain
Timeline #85
🇳🇱
Netherlands
beat 🇧🇷 Brazil
SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇧🇷 Brazil
Timeline #86
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇺 Australia
SF: 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇪🇸 Spain
Timeline #87
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #88
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇩🇪 Germany
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #89
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #90
🇧🇷
Brazil
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #91
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇧🇪 Belgium
Timeline #92
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇫🇷 France
Timeline #93
🇨🇿
Czech Republic
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #94
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇯🇵 Japan
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇯🇵 Japan
Timeline #95
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #96
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇲🇦 Morocco
Timeline #97
🇩🇪
Germany
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #98
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay
SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇵🇹 Portugal
Timeline #99
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #100
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇵🇹 Portugal