Alternate realities
Explore how the tournament shifts under different assumptions, then browse 100 sampled tournament rollouts from the model's actual posterior.
Scenario simulator
The model's baseline forecast. Current Elo plus squad strength dominate.
- 1🇪🇸Spain32.20%+0.0
- 2🇦🇷Argentina27.49%+0.0
- 3🏴England20.91%+0.0
- 4🇫🇷France19.40%+0.0
- 5🇩🇿Algeria0.00%+0.0
- 6🇦🇺Australia0.00%+0.0
- 7🇦🇹Austria0.00%+0.0
- 8🇧🇪Belgium0.00%+0.0
- 9🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina0.00%+0.0
- 10🇧🇷Brazil0.00%+0.0
- 11🇨🇦Canada0.00%+0.0
- 12🇨🇻Cape Verde0.00%+0.0
Champions across 100 sampled timelines
🇦🇷Argentina ×33🇪🇸Spain ×28🇫🇷France ×20🏴England ×19
Timeline #1
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #2
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #3
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #4
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #5
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #6
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #7
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #8
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #9
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #10
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #11
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #12
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #13
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #14
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #15
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #16
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #17
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #18
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #19
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #20
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #21
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #22
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #23
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #24
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #25
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #26
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #27
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #28
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #29
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #30
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #31
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #32
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #33
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #34
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #35
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #36
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #37
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #38
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #39
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #40
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #41
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #42
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #43
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #44
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #45
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #46
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #47
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #48
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #49
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #50
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #51
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #52
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #53
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #54
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #55
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #56
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #57
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #58
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #59
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #60
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #61
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #62
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #63
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #64
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #65
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #66
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #67
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #68
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #69
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #70
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #71
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #72
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #73
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #74
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #75
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #76
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #77
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #78
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #79
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #80
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #81
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #82
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #83
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #84
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #85
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #86
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #87
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #88
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #89
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #90
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #91
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #92
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #93
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #94
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #95
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #96
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #97
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #98
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #99
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #100
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina