Alternate realities
Explore how the tournament shifts under different assumptions, then browse 100 sampled tournament rollouts from the model's actual posterior.
Scenario simulator
The model's baseline forecast. Current Elo plus squad strength dominate.
- 1🏴England19.17%+0.0
- 2🇦🇷Argentina18.77%+0.0
- 3🇪🇸Spain17.50%+0.0
- 4🇫🇷France16.57%+0.0
- 5🇵🇹Portugal6.08%+0.0
- 6🇨🇴Colombia5.68%+0.0
- 7🇲🇦Morocco5.64%+0.0
- 8🇧🇪Belgium5.04%+0.0
- 9🇳🇴Norway3.18%+0.0
- 10🇨🇭Switzerland1.75%+0.0
- 11🇪🇬Egypt0.38%+0.0
- 12🇺🇸United States0.25%+0.0
Champions across 100 sampled timelines
🇦🇷Argentina ×22🇪🇸Spain ×21🏴England ×20🇫🇷France ×16🇲🇦Morocco ×7🇨🇴Colombia ×6🇨🇭Switzerland ×3🇵🇹Portugal ×2🇧🇪Belgium ×2🇳🇴Norway ×1
Timeline #1
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #2
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #3
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #4
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #5
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #6
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #7
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #8
🏴
England
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🏴 England
Timeline #9
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #10
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #11
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #12
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #13
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #14
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #15
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #16
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #17
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #18
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #19
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #20
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #21
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #22
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #23
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #24
🇨🇭
Switzerland
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Timeline #25
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #26
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇳🇴 Norway
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #27
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #28
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #29
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #30
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #31
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #32
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #33
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #34
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #35
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇺🇸 United States
SF: 🇺🇸 United States, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #36
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #37
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #38
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #39
🏴
England
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #40
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #41
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #42
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #43
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #44
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇳🇴 Norway
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #45
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #46
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #47
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #48
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇳🇴 Norway
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #49
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇨🇭 Switzerland
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Timeline #50
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #51
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇳🇴 Norway
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #52
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #53
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #54
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #55
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #56
🏴
England
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #57
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #58
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇳🇴 Norway
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #59
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #60
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #61
🇵🇹
Portugal
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🏴 England
Timeline #62
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #63
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #64
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #65
🏴
England
beat 🇧🇪 Belgium
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🏴 England
Timeline #66
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #67
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇪🇬 Egypt
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇪🇬 Egypt
Timeline #68
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇵🇹 Portugal
SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #69
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #70
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #71
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #72
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #73
🇳🇴
Norway
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway
Timeline #74
🇧🇪
Belgium
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #75
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #76
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #77
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #78
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #79
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #80
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #81
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #82
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #83
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴 England
Timeline #84
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #85
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #86
🇫🇷
France
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #87
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #88
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #89
🇧🇪
Belgium
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🏴 England
Timeline #90
🇨🇭
Switzerland
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Timeline #91
🇲🇦
Morocco
beat 🏴 England
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #92
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #93
🇫🇷
France
beat 🇨🇴 Colombia
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇨🇴 Colombia
Timeline #94
🇪🇸
Spain
beat 🇦🇷 Argentina
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #95
🏴
England
beat 🇲🇦 Morocco
SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🏴 England
Timeline #96
🏴
England
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🏴 England
Timeline #97
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #98
🇨🇭
Switzerland
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Timeline #99
🇦🇷
Argentina
beat 🇫🇷 France
SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina
Timeline #100
🇨🇴
Colombia
beat 🇪🇸 Spain
SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia