Alternate realities

Explore how the tournament shifts under different assumptions, then browse 100 sampled tournament rollouts from the model's actual posterior.

Scenario simulator

The model's baseline forecast. Current Elo plus squad strength dominate.

1🇦🇷Argentina16.69%+0.0
2🇪🇸Spain14.84%+0.0
3🇧🇷Brazil13.68%+0.0
4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England7.19%+0.0
5🇫🇷France6.93%+0.0
6🇨🇴Colombia5.04%+0.0
7🇵🇹Portugal4.98%+0.0
8🇩🇪Germany3.58%+0.0
9🇲🇦Morocco3.39%+0.0
10🇳🇱Netherlands3.29%+0.0
11🇯🇵Japan3.27%+0.0
12🇺🇾Uruguay2.94%+0.0

Champions across 100 sampled timelines

🇦🇷Argentina ×19🇪🇸Spain ×19🇨🇴Colombia ×10🇧🇷Brazil ×10🇲🇦Morocco ×8🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England ×4🇫🇷France ×4🇺🇾Uruguay ×4🇯🇵Japan ×3🇵🇹Portugal ×3🇳🇱Netherlands ×3🇸🇳Senegal ×2🇨🇭Switzerland ×2🇲🇽Mexico ×2🇨🇿Czech Republic ×1🇪🇨Ecuador ×1🇩🇪Germany ×1🇺🇸United States ×1🇧🇪Belgium ×1🇵🇾Paraguay ×1🇳🇴Norway ×1

Timeline #1🏆

🇸🇳

Senegal

beat 🇫🇷 France

SF: 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #2🏆

🇨🇿

Czech Republic

beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador

SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic

Timeline #3🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #4🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇸🇪 Sweden

SF: 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇪🇸 Spain

Timeline #5🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇵🇹 Portugal

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇵🇹 Portugal

Timeline #6🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands

SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #7🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇩🇿 Algeria

SF: 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #8🏆

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, 🇩🇪 Germany

Timeline #9🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇵🇾 Paraguay

SF: 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #10🏆

🇪🇨

Ecuador

beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands

SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Timeline #11🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇲🇦 Morocco

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #12🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #13🏆

🇩🇪

Germany

beat 🇦🇺 Australia

SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇺 Australia

Timeline #14🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #15🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇪🇸 Spain

Timeline #16🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador

SF: 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇧🇷 Brazil

Timeline #17🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇨🇭 Switzerland

SF: 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #18🏆

🇫🇷

France

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #19🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇲🇽 Mexico

SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #20🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇫🇷 France

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #21🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #22🏆

🇯🇵

Japan

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇯🇵 Japan

Timeline #23🏆

🇵🇹

Portugal

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #24🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇯🇵 Japan

SF: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇪🇸 Spain

Timeline #25🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇳🇴 Norway

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇴 Norway

Timeline #26🏆

🇨🇭

Switzerland

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #27🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #28🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #29🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #30🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #31🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #32🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #33🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇫🇷 France

SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #34🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇪🇨 Ecuador

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇪🇨 Ecuador

Timeline #35🏆

🇯🇵

Japan

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇯🇵 Japan

Timeline #36🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇲🇦 Morocco

SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #37🏆

🇳🇱

Netherlands

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Timeline #38🏆

🇫🇷

France

beat 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast

SF: 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #39🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇫🇷 France

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #40🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #41🏆

🇺🇾

Uruguay

beat 🇵🇹 Portugal

SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #42🏆

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #43🏆

🇳🇱

Netherlands

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇩🇪 Germany

Timeline #44🏆

🇺🇸

United States

beat 🇬🇭 Ghana

SF: 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇺🇸 United States

Timeline #45🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇧🇪 Belgium

SF: 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #46🏆

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #47🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇨🇭 Switzerland

SF: 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #48🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands

SF: 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #49🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇸🇳 Senegal

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇸🇳 Senegal

Timeline #50🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #51🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #52🏆

🇧🇪

Belgium

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇧🇪 Belgium

Timeline #53🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇧🇷 Brazil

Timeline #54🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇩🇿 Algeria

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇩🇿 Algeria

Timeline #55🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #56🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇪🇸 Spain

Timeline #57🏆

🇫🇷

France

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #58🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇩🇿 Algeria

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇩🇿 Algeria

Timeline #59🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇸🇳 Senegal

SF: 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇧🇷 Brazil

Timeline #60🏆

🇨🇭

Switzerland

beat 🇹🇳 Tunisia

SF: 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland

Timeline #61🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

SF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, 🇧🇷 Brazil

Timeline #62🏆

🇫🇷

France

beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay

SF: 🇫🇷 France, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #63🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #64🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇪🇸 Spain

Timeline #65🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands

SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Timeline #66🏆

🇯🇵

Japan

beat 🇺🇾 Uruguay

SF: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #67🏆

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

Timeline #68🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #69🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #70🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #71🏆

🇸🇳

Senegal

beat 🇦🇹 Austria

SF: 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇸🇳 Senegal

Timeline #72🏆

🇺🇾

Uruguay

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇨🇴 Colombia

Timeline #73🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #74🏆

🇵🇹

Portugal

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #75🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇭🇷 Croatia

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇭🇷 Croatia

Timeline #76🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇦🇹 Austria

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇦🇹 Austria

Timeline #77🏆

🇵🇾

Paraguay

beat 🇩🇪 Germany

SF: 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇩🇪 Germany

Timeline #78🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #79🏆

🇺🇾

Uruguay

beat 🇲🇦 Morocco

SF: 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #80🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #81🏆

🇲🇽

Mexico

beat 🇳🇴 Norway

SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇴 Norway

Timeline #82🏆

🇧🇷

Brazil

beat 🇵🇾 Paraguay

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇵🇾 Paraguay

Timeline #83🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #84🏆

🇳🇱

Netherlands

beat 🇪🇸 Spain

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Timeline #85🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇫🇷 France

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇫🇷 France

Timeline #86🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇳🇱 Netherlands

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇳🇱 Netherlands

Timeline #87🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇵🇹 Portugal

SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #88🏆

🇲🇽

Mexico

beat 🇵🇹 Portugal

SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇵🇹 Portugal

Timeline #89🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇯🇵 Japan

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇯🇵 Japan

Timeline #90🏆

🇺🇾

Uruguay

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Timeline #91🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇧🇷 Brazil

SF: 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #92🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇯🇵 Japan

SF: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #93🏆

🇳🇴

Norway

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇳🇴 Norway

Timeline #94🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #95🏆

🇵🇹

Portugal

beat 🇲🇦 Morocco

SF: 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇲🇦 Morocco

Timeline #96🏆

🇪🇸

Spain

beat 🇹🇷 Turkey

SF: 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey

Timeline #97🏆

🇲🇦

Morocco

beat 🇵🇹 Portugal

SF: 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇵🇹 Portugal

Timeline #98🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇨🇴 Colombia

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #99🏆

🇦🇷

Argentina

beat 🇲🇽 Mexico

SF: 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇦🇷 Argentina

Timeline #100🏆

🇨🇴

Colombia

beat 🇦🇷 Argentina

SF: 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇦🇷 Argentina